AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia-Eritrea Diplomatic Break: Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its Asmara embassy, accusing “hostile and warlike acts” amid renewed fighting in Tigray and neighboring Afar and Amhara; Eritrea retaliated by severing ties with Addis Ababa, while Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat and Egypt responded in kind. Horn of Africa Tensions: UN chief António Guterres urged restraint as the crisis risks widening beyond Ethiopia, with the African Union calling Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to de-escalate and resolve disputes through dialogue. Security on the Ground: Reports said explosions hit Ethiopia’s capital near military sites as fighting intensifies in the north, raising fears of a return to wider conflict. Regional Energy and Trade: Separate coverage highlighted how Red Sea and corridor risks are pushing up shipping and insurance costs on routes Ethiopia still relies on, while regional energy projects remain central to future stability. Ethiopia’s Reforms and Growth: Ethiopia’s central bank governor said financial reforms are improving FX flexibility, tackling inflation and expanding access to finance. Business and Events: Ethiopia was selected to host the 2027 Africa Commerce Convergence Summit in Addis Ababa, backed by local marketing, ICT and logistics associations.

Tigray Crisis & Regional Risk: Fighting has reignited in northern Ethiopia between federal forces and a Tigrayan-led rebel alliance, with analysts warning the tangled links to Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Red Sea dynamics could pull the Horn toward wider conflict. Diplomatic Breakdowns: Ethiopia and Eritrea sever ties after Addis Ababa closes its Asmara embassy and expels Eritrean diplomats; Ethiopia and Egypt also enter a tit-for-tat row, each expelling a diplomat within 48 hours, amid renewed fears tied to the GERD and the northern fighting. Security Shock in Addis Ababa: Explosions were reported near Ethiopia’s defense HQ as drone use was banned, raising concerns the conflict may be reaching the capital. AU Calls for Restraint: The African Union urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to de-escalate through dialogue and diplomatic channels. Energy & Investment Watch: Kenya broke ground on Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery (700,000 bpd, targeted for 2030), while Ethiopia’s financial reforms are drawing interest from foreign banks. Culture & Society: Prime Minister Abiy sent Irreecha festival wishes, framing it around peace and national renewal.

Diplomatic Rift Deepens: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, giving them 48 hours to leave, citing “direct and indirect acts of hostility” amid renewed northern fighting. Eritrea Responds: Eritrea immediately said it is severing all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia in a tit-for-tat move, accusing Addis Ababa of hostility and of backing opposition groups. Regional Spillover Fears: Explosions were reported in Addis Ababa near military installations after Ethiopia banned drone flights, raising concerns the conflict could spread beyond Tigray and nearby regions. Aid Disrupted: The UN warned that escalating drone activity and airstrikes in northern Ethiopia are disrupting humanitarian operations, with road closures and overwhelmed facilities, while access in Tigray is nearing a standstill. Nile Tensions in the Background: Egypt also declared an Ethiopian embassy counsellor persona non grata, citing reciprocity after Ethiopia’s earlier action against an Egyptian diplomat. Somali Politics: Mustafe Cagjar was reelected for another five-year term as president of Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.

Addis Ababa Security: Explosions were heard overnight in Ethiopia’s capital, with Reuters citing diplomatic sources saying an opposition alliance carried out drone strikes, including near the military’s headquarters—claims the government did not immediately comment on, and Ethiopia’s intelligence service has already banned drone flights over Addis Ababa and surroundings. Tigray Conflict Watch: The blasts come as fighting in northern Ethiopia escalates again after the 2020–2022 war, raising fears of wider instability across the Horn. Air Cargo Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines signed an agreement to buy 10 Boeing cargo planes—eight 777-8Fs and two 777Fs—aimed at boosting its role as a cargo gateway between Africa and global markets. Nile Compensation Move: Ethiopia announced a national committee to assess economic losses from Nile projects “blocked or obstructed” by Egypt, including the GERD, as it prepares compensation claims. Regional Energy Push: Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attended the groundbreaking of Dangote’s $16bn East Africa refinery in Kenya, part of a broader push to expand regional refining and connectivity. Digital Transformation: A JICA advisor told ENA Ethiopia’s startup ecosystem and government support could help drive Africa’s digital transformation. Human Stories: Three Gujarat residents allegedly abducted in Ethiopia while trying to reach the US via an illegal route have returned to India and are heading home.

Tigray Crisis: The Nobel Peace Prize committee voiced “deep concern” over renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, warning the conflict risks undoing the post-2020 peace hopes. Civilian Toll: A BBC report says heavy fighting around Alamata in Tigray has killed at least 52 civilians over three days, as government forces push toward Mekelle and clashes also disrupt travel to Lalibela. Church Plea: Pope Leo XIV urged warring parties in Tigray to choose dialogue and called for unhindered humanitarian access. Air Cargo Boost: Ethiopian Airlines ordered eight Boeing 777-8Fs and two 777Fs, expanding its freighter fleet and cargo reach. Aviation Deal: Ethiopian Airlines also signed for 10 Boeing freighters, reinforcing its freight growth plans. Regional Energy Push: Leaders backed Dangote’s $16bn East Africa refinery in Kenya’s Lamu, with Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed among attendees; the project targets 700,000 barrels per day and completion in 40 months. Nile Tensions: Egypt said it needs a bigger Nile share as Ethiopia-related dam tensions escalate.

Ethiopia-Red Sea Dispute: A viral claim that the Somali Red Sea coast “dried up” was debunked as footage from India’s Alang shipbreaking yard, raising fresh questions about Ethiopia’s sea-access push. Aviation Deal: Ethiopian Airlines is set to sign a Boeing agreement for 10 freighter aircraft, as it also backs a major airport expansion. Education Funding: Ethiopia’s education debate widens as Uganda-style reforms are reported: scrapping per-pupil grants for a cost-based model aimed at covering real school running expenses and cutting headcount fraud. Regional Energy Push: Kenya broke ground on Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery (Sh2.2tn), with Ethiopia’s PM Abiy attending; the project targets 700,000 barrels/day and regional fuel security. Humanitarian Warning: UNHCR says severe funding cuts could leave 8.3 million refugees and displaced people without vital protection, including sharp drops in child protection coverage in Ethiopia. Tigray Conflict: Reports say federal forces and allies have taken Alamata in southern Tigray, while fighting continues and humanitarian access remains strained. Business & Science: Ethiopian researchers report bacteria from textile wastewater that can remove dye in lab tests; Akobo Minerals also posts record Q2 gold output from its Segele mine. Sports: Senegal beat Ethiopia 1-0 in AFCON 2027 qualifiers.

Northern Ethiopia Crisis: Fighting has surged again in Tigray after the 2022 Pretoria deal frayed, with hospitals reporting sharp spikes in war-wounded admissions and MSF warning some services were suspended as security deteriorated. Alamata Front: Ethiopian government forces and allied fighters claimed they took Alamata, as clashes spread toward Amhara and Afar and civilians face mounting pressure. Regional Tensions: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigray-linked forces; all three denied the claims, while Sudan rejected Ethiopia’s counter-accusations. US Diplomacy Push: Senate Democrats urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to intervene urgently, warning renewed hostilities could unravel the peace agreement. Digital Finance Security: Ethiopia’s central bank plans a dedicated cybersecurity and fraud directorate after 1.3 billion birr in fraud losses, as mobile money growth outpaces digital safety. Trade & Logistics: War-risk insurance for Red Sea-linked shipping rose sharply, raising costs for Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor. Refugee Funding Alarm: UNHCR warned 8.3 million displaced people face losing vital protection as funding falls. Economy & Reform: Ethiopia’s finance forum highlighted reforms to move from stabilization to economic transformation, with the NBE stressing a stronger financial sector.

Tigray Conflict Update: Ethiopia’s federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force say they have taken Alamata, a key southern gateway into Tigray, as fighting intensifies and the Pretoria peace deal unravels. Humanitarian Pressure: UNHCR warns nearly 8.3 million displaced people could lose access to protection and aid as “severe” funding cuts shrink its budget and services. Tech Sovereignty: Ethiopia’s Innovation and Technology ministry says the country is pushing “technological sovereignty” through STRIDE Ethiopia 2.0, aiming to build, adapt, and export homegrown solutions. Digital & Climate Finance: AGFUND signed four development agreements in New York, including AI and digital finance support, plus climate-resilient micro-insurance plans for Ethiopia and neighbors. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt hosts the first Alamein Africa Forum, seeking to boost trade and investment links across Africa and rally support in its GERD dispute with Ethiopia. Energy Corridor Watch: Reporting highlights Ethiopia’s move to shift fuel logistics from trucks to a pipeline system—part of a wider Dangote-backed infrastructure push. Sports: Tigst Assefa won Berlin Marathon in 2:11:04 but underwent surgery in Munich after a ruptured Achilles.

Northern Ethiopia Conflict: The ICRC evacuated 161 people from conflict-affected Tigray to Afar, moving federal police, Ethiopian Airlines staff, civil aviation security and AU monitors by Red Cross-marked buses as fighting and tensions rise. Regional Mediation: The UN and AU asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to help restart dialogue and prevent the 2022 peace deal from unraveling amid renewed clashes. Claims of External Support: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked forces, while Eritrea and Sudan denied the allegations as strategic towns changed hands. Humanitarian Pressure: WFP warned of a severe funding shortfall and worsening food insecurity driven by insecurity, displacement and El Niño-linked rainfall disruptions across Afar, Amhara, Tigray and Oromia. Trade and Security Risk: Analysts warned that disruptions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could raise costs and logistics shocks for Ethiopia via the Djibouti corridor, with risk levels described as high. Diplomacy: President Taye Atske Selassie met EU officials to discuss peace, security and economic cooperation in the Horn of Africa. Sports Spotlight: Ethiopian runner Tigst Assefa won the Berlin Marathon women’s title in 2:11:04 but is reported to have undergone surgery for a torn Achilles tendon.

Tigray Frontline Updates: Ethiopia’s army says it captured Alamata, a strategic town south of Mekelle, as fighting with the TPLF resumes and the Pretoria peace deal faces strain; drones hit Tigrai TV headquarters in Mekelle and the conflict is spreading into Afar and Amhara, with reports of major displacement. Regional Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea and Sudan of backing Tigray rebels; Sudan denies involvement, while the UN and African Union urge de-escalation and safe humanitarian access. Humanitarian Push: The EU announced €61m in humanitarian aid for people affected by conflict, displacement, disease outbreaks and climate hazards in northern Ethiopia. Governance & Data: Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers referred key bills to parliament, including measures on governance, data sovereignty, power-sector reform, tax administration and defense legal frameworks. Somali Region Health: Ethiopia’s Somali Region inaugurated a nearly 1bn birr police hospital for officers and their families. Diplomacy: UN chief António Guterres backed AU-led Obasanjo mediation to ease tensions and restart talks under the Pretoria Agreement.

Tigray Conflict Escalates: A drone struck the Tigrai TV headquarters in Mekelle as heavy clashes resumed between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal forces, with reports of rebels advancing in Afar and fears the 2020-2022 civil war could restart. Humanitarian Alarm: UN rights chief Volker Türk warned of widening civilian harm, citing strikes on schools, disrupted internet and blocked roads, and urged urgent de-escalation and safe humanitarian access. Foreigners Trapped in Lalibela: Israel says about 20 Israelis are stranded in Lalibela after fighting shut airports and roads, with shortages of food, fuel, electricity and communications. Diplomacy and Regional Ties: Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske-Selassie met UAE officials at UNGA to deepen bilateral cooperation. Connectivity and Trade: Ethiopia and Djibouti-backed plans for a major petroleum-products pipeline and Djibouti’s new energy terminal underline the push to secure fuel logistics for Ethiopia. Sports: Ethiopian Tigst Assefa won Berlin Marathon in 2:11:04 but missed the women’s world record due to injury/cramps.

Berlin Marathon: Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa won the women’s race at the 52nd Berlin Marathon in 2:11:04, narrowly missing the world record after cramps in the final kilometres; she set a new Berlin course record and still delivered an all-Ethiopian podium with Bedatu Hirpa second and Dera Dida third. Men’s Marathon: Guye Adola also secured an Ethiopian double, winning the men’s race in 2:02:50. Northern Ethiopia Security: Ethiopia’s army chief says the military is responding to “provocations” from the Tigray front with “wisdom and restraint,” while fighting has spread into Afar and Amhara and fears of a wider civil conflict grow. Diplomacy: Qatar condemned the escalation against Ethiopian federal forces and urged immediate cessation of hostilities and protection of civilians under the Pretoria Peace Agreement. Public Health: Africa CDC warned that Ethiopia is among 10 African countries at risk as a DRC Ebola outbreak spreads, urging stronger surveillance and rapid response. Energy/Policy: PM Abiy Ahmed appointed Abraham Belay as Commissioner of the Ethiopian Nuclear Energy Commission. Sports/Health Note: Assefa’s late collapse after being on record pace highlights how quickly marathon bids can unravel.

Tigray Crisis: Fighting has reignited in northern Ethiopia as regional forces seize control of three airports and clash with federal troops, raising fears the 2022 peace deal is collapsing and the conflict could spread into Afar and Amhara. Communications Shock: Internet and telecom services were disrupted across Tigray, with Ethio Telecom down and Safaricom partly available, worsening cash shortages and daily transactions. Humanitarian Alarm: UN rights chief Volker Türk says civilians are paying the price, citing strikes on schools and urging de-escalation and safe humanitarian access. Diplomatic Pressure: Russia calls for a ceasefire and warns against external interference, while Ethiopia and Tigray accuse each other of launching offensives. Meskel-Demera Unity Push: Despite the war backdrop, millions celebrated Meskel; Ethiopia’s Orthodox leadership and senior officials urged national peace, reconciliation, and unity. Fuel Corridor Boost: Ethiopia and Djibouti are advancing a $660m fuel pipeline with Dangote involvement to cut transport delays and costs. EU Aid: The EU announced nearly €710m in humanitarian support, including €60m for primary healthcare in Ethiopia and €554.5m targeting Africa.

Tigray Crisis Deepens: Fighting has reignited in Ethiopia’s north, shattering the 2022 Pretoria peace deal and triggering telecom and internet disruptions in Tigray; Ethio Telecom was cut while Safaricom stayed partly online, with NetBlocks reporting a regional shutdown and the U.S. warning Americans to leave Amhara, Tigray and Afar or shelter in place. New Opposition Alliance: Ethiopia’s army chief accuses Egypt, Sudan and other foreign powers of backing armed and political groups, days after seven Ethiopian groups formed an “Alliance for Survival” pledging to remove PM Abiy Ahmed. Diplomatic Pressure & BRICS: PM Abiy sent Meskel-Demera greetings, while a senior researcher said Ethiopia’s BRICS membership could unlock investment and NDB financing. Energy Corridor Push: Ethiopia and Djibouti, backed by Aliko Dangote, are promoting a $660m fuel pipeline to cut transport time and boost energy security, even as analysts warn the corridor faces renewed northern conflict risks. Agriculture Funding: Ten African countries, including Ethiopia, increased pledges to IFAD, urging partners to match for rural transformation.

Tigray Crisis: The UN says security is deteriorating fast in northern Ethiopia, with reports of drone use and harm to civilians, while internet and phone services are disrupted and fears grow of a return to the 2020-22 blockade. Diplomatic Pressure: The UAE strongly condemned TPLF attacks, including airport takeovers, and urged immediate de-escalation and protection of civilians, backing Ethiopia’s sovereignty and the Pretoria Peace Agreement. Human Rights Alarm: UN rights chief Volker Türk warned of “deeply troubling” impacts on civilians, citing strikes hitting schools and near-total telecom shutdowns. Military Developments: Ethiopia’s military says it repelled attacks and claims major losses for Tigrayan forces, as fighting spreads into Afar and Amhara. Fuel Corridor Deal: Ethiopia and Djibouti, with Dangote, announced a 120-km refined petroleum products pipeline to cut tanker reliance and speed deliveries. Health Update: Ethiopia’s Ministry of Health says maternal and child mortality have improved over five years, highlighting pharmacists’ role. Sports: AFCON 2027 qualifiers table updates include Sudan beating Ethiopia 1-0; Nigeria opened with a 2-1 win over Madagascar.

Tigray Conflict Escalates: Heavy fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigray rebels has flared again, with reports of airports seized in Tigray, clashes spreading into Afar and Amhara, and fears the 2022 peace deal is collapsing. Internet Disruption: NetBlocks says there’s been a telecoms blackout affecting northern Ethiopia, reviving memories of wartime communication cuts and supply shortages. Humanitarian Strain: A Catholic Relief Services aid convoy in Tigray was hit by a drone attack, injuring a driver and a young girl while carrying food for displaced people. Fuel Corridor Deal: Ethiopia and Djibouti, with Aliko Dangote’s backing, are pushing ahead with a $660m Damarjog–Dewele refined fuel pipeline and storage project, aimed at cutting fuel transport time and logistics costs. Regional Food Crisis: IGAD warns 40.3 million people across six member states face acute food insecurity, driven by conflict, climate shocks, and funding gaps. Global Health Politics: A fifth candidate has entered the race to lead the WHO after Tedros, as nominations close ahead of a November forum.